Waste Management Phoenix Open
Thursday Feb 25 – Sunday Feb 28, 2010
After a brief trip to Mexico, the PGA Tour makes a return to US soil, or should I say sand, as we are in the Arizona desert. The TPC Scottsdale is considered a 'stadium' for golf as over half a million spectators often flock to see the pros in action. This year not only has the tournament got a new sponsor - Waste Management - but the field is remarkably stronger than usual due to the lack of a European Tour event and a later date in the calendar. In fact, three of the top 10 ranked players in the world play this week, including European Tour regular Martin Kaymer.
Measuring in at just over 7200 yards and comprising of wide, accessible fairways, it is evident that driving distance will be an advantage, supported by the the fact that the course hosts three easily makeable par fives. Last year's winner Kenny Perry is a key example as he ranked 9th in DD at 11 yards over the field average. However, on a typically low scoring course like Scottsdale, it is more apparent that birdie average is the key stat to look for. 2009 winner Perry was 6th in birdies and runner up Charley Hoffman led in this stat while in all four of the top five ranked within the top six for birdies.
So things to look out for when selecting players for this year's Phoenix are low scorers, par breakers with high birdie averages, good putters on bermuda grass, someone who has great course form or local knowledge and, although not essential but an adavantage, a big hitter. With these ideas in mind this week I find myself backing......
Kevin Na - The youngster from California seems to have an affinity to Arizona and Scottsdale in particular where his record reads T2 (2005), T67 (2007), T4 (2008) and 3rd (2009). Last year he was very unlucky not to be part of the playoff between Hoffman and Perry when he failed to birdie the last and had to settle for a third but it is the way in which he responded in an interview afterwards that inspires me, "Im going to win here someday...Next year?". So Na has course form but how does he rank in terms of putting? Well actually, very well is the answer as he ranks 1st in putts per round for 2010 and was a very respecatble T20th in the same stat for 2009. In terms of birdies he sits in T30th this year through 17 rounds and managed to go low at the Bob Hope where he posted all five rounds in the 60s. Finally, its worth noting that Na has finished in the top 10 in two out of five outings this term while last year he was fourth in top 10s with 9/26. 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes)
Jeff Quinney - Quinney went to University here in Arizona and is a Scottsdale resident so he should know this course and the area like the back of his hand and his course record includes a 3rd in 2007 which seems to support this idea. He sits 25th in PPR this year and was a respectable T39th last year while he ranks 11th in par 3 performance and 46th on par 5s this year which will be important on a course where the par 4 and 5s are rated as the easiest and therefore more birdie friendly holes. Anything over 100/1 seems a decent price to me. 0.5pts @ 150/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes) and 1pt Top 20 @ 6/1 (Skybet)
Ryan Palmer - Thanks to Mascharano on the Betfair forum who led me to reassess Palmer and realise that he sits 4th in birdie average and 23rd in driving distance for 2010, two main criteria for Scottsdale in my opinion. In four outings he has made the cut in three of them and can even boast a win at the Sony in Hawaii on the same bermuda greens he will play on here. With regards to course form, Palmer should have won at Scottsdale in 2006 but for a poor final round of 72 and had to settle for 2nd, if he can post scores in the 60s like he not only showed in 2006 but last year as well before again blowing out in the final round, he will contend. 0.5pts e/w @ 150/1 (Ladbrokes) and 1pt Top 10 @ 11/1 (William Hill)