Doha GC
Doha, Qatar
Staying in the Middle East, the European Tour moves over to Qatar and the Doha Golf Club. Doha is a long course at 7,388 yds that will obviously favour the bigger hitters on tour and is home to a similar set of bermuda greens, which have some tricky slopes, that we saw last week.
Looking over past results here three things stick out, most prominently the importance of hitting the greens in regulation but also driving distance and putting average. With regards to GIR it seems that over the last three years all the winners have ranked either first or second in this stat - 2nd (Quiros 2009), 1st (Scott 2008) and 1st (Goosens 2007) and out of the top five finishers over these three years the lowest ranked was Graeme McDowell (40th in 2007) who compensated average GIR with top putting (2nd in PA). This brings me onto putting average. As I just mentioned if a player isn't hitting greens that well he will have to rely on his putting, last year Louis Oosthuizen ranked an average 36th in GIR but 8th in PA and finished 2nd but it is also a vital stat that features consistently in the top five over the years. Quiros, winner in 2009 ranked 10th in PA, 2008 winner Scott 1st, Goosen 5th in 2007 and Stenson 6th in 2006. Finally, as I mentioned earlier Doha is a long course where driving distance will be a favourable asset in posting low rounds. A quick look at the past five winners and all have ranked in the top 15 in DD and hit around the 300 yard range.
It may also be worth a mention that the wind can play a significant factor in shaping the result of this tournament. When the wind is forcast to blow strongly a player with an early tee time will find it easier to post a low score in calmer conditions than someone who has the disadvantage of playing in the wind in the afternoon.
While it's almost impossible to overlook Kaymer again this week after his almost flawless performance at Abu Dhabi and his masterclass in putting, I can't quite bring myself to take the 10/1 so instead I've decided to look for some value and the following players have caught my eye.....
Johan Edfors - Im going to plump for the Swede again this week despite his disappointing T42nd at the Abu Dhabi simply because of his performance in three vital stats. Ranking 7th in DD, 22nd in GIR and 19th in PGIR I'm confident that if he can reproduce last week's efforts then his game will suit the Doha course. To back this up is the fact that in 2009 he ranked 7th in DD and 10th in GIR and while his putting left a lot to be desired, his showing last week on similar bermuda greens tempts me. It's also hard to ignore Edfors' course form, his last two visits to Doha reading 16th (2009) and 4th (2008) and both consisting of a round sub 67. 0.5pts e/w @ 69/1 (Bet365)
Kenny Perry - Although a novice to this course, Perry has a number of factors weighing in his favour this week as far as i am concerned. His last showing was in Hawaii in the SBS Championship where he finished a respectable 6th. Kalaula is a course which bears many similarities to that of Doha in as much as it has bermuda greens with a near identical stimpmeter rating of 10.5, Perry rated 4th in PA on such greens. He also ranked 9th in GIR in Hawaii which ticks another box and while he only managed to average 278 yds in DD he has regularly posted distances in the mid to low 290s. Its probably also worth noting that Hawaii is notorious for windy conditions so if the wind blows in Qatar, Perry should be comfortable. 1pt e/w @ 32/1 (numerous bookmakers)
Halfway Point......
Paul Casey - I have added Casey simply because I think the price being offerd accross the board is too large for someone who is ranked 9th in the world and only sits five shots behind the leader (Rumford) who in my eyes won't have the experience and nerve to maintain his lead at the top. I also fancy Casey to make a move up the leaderboard after hearing Lee Westwood say that Doha was playing like that of a Major's course and in my eyes Casey should be up there challenging for Majors now fully fit. 1pt e/w @ 21/1 (numerous bookmakers)