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This week the PGA plays host to the Northern Trust Open at the Riviera Country Club in California and poses a serious test for those taking part as the course ranked 13th in difficulty on the PGA Tour last year. At just under 7,300 yards, the Riviera will favour those who are big hitters off the tee but as the stats show over the last few years it is not as vital as good course management and therefore a player who can boast a sterling GIR percentage. Over the last five years, out of the five winners of the event the lowest ranked player in GIR has been 11th and the leader in this stat has at least finished in the top 7 bar Tim Clark in 2006 where he finished 12th.

 

With 11 of the 18 holes being Par 4s it also becomes apparent that someone who ranks highly in Par 4 birdie average will do well here. In fact, four out of the last five years, the top Par 4 performer has finished in the top 5 and no player in the top five of this stat has finished below 22nd. The exception to this finding was Phil Mickelson last year who 'only' ranked 34th on Par 4s but made up for this shortcoming by finishing 1st on Par 5s.

 

While it may seem difficult to look past Phil Mickelson who's record reads Win/Win/2nd over the last three years, he did not perform particuarly well last week on his way to a 19th place finish in a weaker field than he will encounter here. For that reason I am going to pass the skinny 7/1 being offered on Lefty and instead look to the following for value....

 

 

Nick Watney - Born and raised in California and a Fresno College attendant, Watney would have played alot of his early years of golf on similar courses to that of the Riviera. In fact, one of his two wins came in California at Torrey Pines last year and he posted a respectable T9 on the same course last week, progressively getting better as his card suggests - 71-70-69-68 - to finish three off the winner. If the Riviera plays like Torrey Pines last week (as it has been suggested) then Watney should be challenging at the top again. He ranks 9th in GIR for 2010 at a smidge under 80% which will be vital here where course management is essential and sat 3rd last week in scrambling at the Farmer's, a stat that seems prominent in the past top five finishers. 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (numerous)

 

Stuart Cink - The world number 19 seems a little over-priced to me this week. Ok, his last outing at the Sony in Hawaii only yielded a 52nd place finish but he still managed to rank 16th in DD and 4th in GIR, key attributes in being successful on the Rivieria. Couple this with the fact that the week before at the SBS he ranked 9th in DD, 2nd in GIR and 9th in PA on the way to a 9th place finish, he does not seem to have started the year too badly. If he can replicate the 1.73 in PA he posted at the SBS and continue to hit a high percentage of greens then he is more than capable of bettering his highest finish of the 5th he recorded here in 2000. 0.5pts @ 70/1 (Skybet, William Hill)