Emirates GC
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
The last leg of the Middle East step of the European Tour finds us in Dubai and the Emirates Golf Club where the Desert Classic has been held for the last nine years straight. It's a course where the fairways are wide and lead into large, flat bermuda grass greens with a number of water hazards inbetween on 10 of the 18 holes adding to the difficulty. For this reason it is important to focus on accuracy this week and someone who ranks highly in Greens in Regulation - highlighted by the fact that over the last five years, the top five have all ranked within the top 26 in GIR and bar Tiger Woods in 2008, all winners have ranked top 3 in this stat.
Driving Distance is another key attribute to success on this course, as with the other two courses we have already visited in the UAE. With four Par 5s here at the Emirates, a big hitter is at a distinct advantage, getting to the greens earlier and enhancing his birdie chances. The last five year's winners provide evidence for this claim with all five ranking within the top five in DD and hitting over 300 yards.
While distance is important, Par 5 performance is where whis tournament can really be won or lost. As mentioned above, there are four difficult par 5s, three of them on the back nine, that offer prime birdie and eagle opportunities so there may be an opportunity to back a player in running at a larger price if he still has the back nine to play and is still in contention.
Using the above criteria the following players seem of value and worth backing.....
Paul Casey - I was very impressed with Casey up until his final round in Doha. There were no signs of his rib injury causing him problems anymore and from tee to green he looked impeccible, supported by the fact that he ranked 1st in GIR at 79%. Not only does he tick the GIR box but also sat in 4th in DD at 302 yards and despite his meltdown on the green in his final round I'm willing to take a chance especially with previous course form reading T4 ('09), T20 ('07), T16 ('06) and T12 ('04). 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Betfred)
Martin Kaymer - Forget last week, the German has never played well in Qatar but this week his course form reads 2nd (2008) and 4th (2009) and boasts average DD of over 290 yards as well as a GIR average of over 70% in both showings. This year over eight rounds so far he is averaging over 300 yards while maintaining GIR of above 70% and if he can replicate the putting he displayed at Abu Dhabi his double figures price will seem skinny. 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
Francesco Molinari - A missed cut at Doha doesn't put me off Molinari this week, in fact it probably lengthened his price for a course that is more likely to suit his game. Ok, his course form isn't terrific reading 47/mc/48/mc/24 but last year's 24th place finish came at the beginning of a year where he posted eight top 10 finishes on the way to a 14th place finish on the Race to Dubai. He ranked 8th in GIR in 2009 at over 76% and if he can get the iron back working again this week he should challenge. What I find most interesting is the fact that the Emirates course plays like that of an American course and last year the Italian managed to finsh 10th in the US PGA Championship in a stellar field. 1pt e/w @ 55/1 (numerous)