Abu Dhabi 2010

Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

Abu Dhabi Golf Club

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

21 Jan 2010 - 24 Jan 2010

This week's outing in Dubai sees the return of some of the bigger names on the tour and we therefore have a better quality field to look over. Past results indicate that GIR is the key stat here with at least four out of the top five over the last four years ranking in the top ten. Using last year as an example out of the top five in GIR, the lowest placed player was Stephen Gallacher who still placed a respectable 20th while the winner, Paul Casey, ranked 7th overall.

I've also decided to focus on Driving Distance here as the National Course is one of the longest on the tour at 7500yds. Most obviously Paul Casey, who won both last year and in 2007, ranked 4th (2009) and 3rd (2007) in DD, couple this with the fact that 2008 winner Martin Kaymer ranked 14th and four out of the top five featured in the top 15 and a key stat emerges.

Finally, it seems clear that par 4 performance features highly on this course with each of the last four winners of this event ranking in the top 10 -

2009 - Paul Casey 10th on Par 4s

2008 - Martin Kaymer 1st on Par 4s

2007 - Paul Casey 1st on Par 4s

2006 - Chris Dimarco 2nd on Par 4s

It is also worth noting that over the last four years, each of the top five has ranked within the top 15 on Par 4s with the exception of Richard Finch (41st) and Henrik Stenson (18th) both in 2008 and Jean Francois Lucquin (24th) in 2007.

Therefore, this week my picks are as follows.....

Sergio Garcia - Looking at Garcia's stats over the last three months he seems to tick all the boxes with regards the criteria mentioned - DD 7th, GIR 6th and Par 4s 2nd. In his previous three outings at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club he has finished 8/14/3 while his last outing was in the UAE at the Dubai World Championship where he finished 7th and ranked 4th in GIR and 6th in DD. While there may be some doubt as to his fitness after his wrist injury at the end of last year I'm willing to take the chance as in a recent interview the other week he was quoted as saying, "I begin in two weeks at Abu Dhabi, but I have already hit balls and it doesn't hurt me. I am looking forward to testing myself and continuing ahead." 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet) and £14 @ 26.00 on Betfair to trade.

Johan Edfors - Although not one of the market leaders, Edfors seems to have slipped under the radar as he ranks 3rd in GIR, 3rd in DD and 9th on Par 4s over the last 3 months. He also resides in Dubai so will have local knowledge to add to his experience of the course where last year he finished 5th going as low as 66 in his first round and finishing his final round with a 67. If Edfors can build on his 17 under last year then he will be up there challenging again. 0.5pts e/w @ 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet) and £5 @ 180.00 on Betfair to trade.

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